基于VB6.0的供水管网震害预测方法和软件

为了提高供水管网震害预测的效率,修订了现有供水管网震害预测模型,应用Visual Basic 6.0软件平台,开发了供水管网震害预测软件。震害预测软件提供了两方面的预测功能,分别为不同地震烈度下供水管段基于三态的破坏等级预测和供水管网基于五态的破坏等级预测。软件实现了批量供水管段及整个管网的震害预测,且可以进行管网在设定地震下的震害预测,提高了预测效率。经算例分析,验证了软件的可靠性。     

Application of dynamic risk analysis in offshore drilling processes

Process safety is the common global language used to communicate the strategies of hazard identification, risk assessment and safety management. Process safety is identified as an integral part of process development and focuses on preventing and mitigating major process accidents such as fires, explosions, and toxic releases in process industries. Accident probability estimation is the most vital step to all quantitative risk assessment methods. Drilling process for oil is a hazardous operation and hence safety is one of the major concerns and is often measured in terms of risk. Dynamic risk assessment method is meant to reassess risk in terms of updating initial failure probabilities of events and safety barriers, as new information are made available during a specific operation. In this study, a Bayesian network model is developed to represent a well kick scenario. The concept of dynamic environment is incorporated by feeding the real-time failure probability values (observed at different time intervals) of safety barriers to the Bayesian network in order to obtain the corresponding time-dependent variations in kick consequences. This study reveals the importance of real-time monitoring of safety barrier performances and quantitatively shows the effect of deterioration of barrier performance on kick consequence probabilities. The Macondo blowout incident is used to demonstrate how early warnings in barrier probability variations could have been observed and adequately managed to prevent escalation to severe consequences.     

A Bayesian network-based approach for the assessment and management of ageing in major hazard establishments

Currently, there is an increasing attention towards ageing of industrial equipment, as the phenomenon has been recognised as a cause of severe accidents, recorded in the last years in many process establishments. Recent studies described ageing through a number of key-factors affecting the phenomenon by accelerating or slowing it down. The Italian Competent Authority for the prevention of chemical accidents (Seveso III Directive) adopted a short-cut method, accounting for the assessment of these factors, to evaluate the adequateness of ageing management during inspections at Seveso sites. In this paper, a Bayesian Network was developed, by using the data gathered during the first application of the short-cut method, with the aim to verify the robustness of the approach for ageing assessment and the validity of the a priori assumptions used in assessing the key-factors. The structure of the Bayesian network was established by using experts’ knowledge, whereas the Counting Learning algorithm was adopted to execute the parameter learning by means of the software Netica. The results showed that this network could effectively explore the complex logical and uncertain relationships amongst factors affecting equipment ageing. Results of the present study were exploited to improve the short-cut method.     

Bibliometric analysis of simulated driving research from 1997 to 2016

Objective: The objective of this study was to explore the evolution footprints of simulated driving research in the past 20 years through rigorous and systematic bibliometric analysis, to provide insights regarding when and where the research was performed and by whom and how the mainstream content evolved over the years.

Methods: The analysis began with data retrieval in Web of Science with defined search terms related to simulated driving. BibExcel and CiteSpace were employed to conduct the performance analysis and co-citation network analysis; that is, probe of the performance of institutes, journals, authors, and research hotspots.

Results: A total of 3,766 documents were filtered out and presented an exponential growth from 1997 to 2016. The United States contributed the most publications as well as international collaborations followed by Germany and China. In addition, several universities in The Netherlands and the United States dominated the list of contributing institutes. The leading journals were in transportation and ergonomics. The leading researchers were also recognized among the 8,721 contributing authors, such as J. D. Lee, D. L. Fisher, J. H. Kim, and K. A. Brookhuis. Finally, the co-citation analysis illuminated the evolution of simulated driving research that covered the following topics roughly in chronological order: task-induced stress, drivers with neurological disorders, alertness and sleepiness while driving, trust toward driving assistance systems, driver distraction, the effect of drug use, the validity of simulators, and automated driving.

Conclusions: This article employed bibliometric tools to probe the contributing countries, institutes, journals, authors, and mainstream hotspots of simulated driving research in the past 20 years. A systematic bibliometric analysis of this field will help researchers realize the panorama of global simulated driving and establish future research directions.     

产业园区碳排放核算方法研究

产业园区是一个协同实现经济效益和环境效益的重要单元,同时也是重点碳排放源,其转型和发展对实现国家和地区的低碳战略起到关键作用。碳排放核算方法影响园区碳排放水平的评估,是制定有效碳减排策略的基础。产业园区碳排放核算需要明确核算对象、核算结果表征和核算范围。本研究首先界定核算对象,辨析"二氧化碳量"与"二氧化碳当量"两种表征方式,认为二氧化碳量可以反映产业园区能源结构,而二氧化碳当量则能够量化园区的不同排放过程和环境效应。同时,从价值链角度出发,将园区碳排放核算划分为三个Scope,分别反映园区直接排放和上下游关联企业的间接排放。然后,从排放活动和部门关联出发,分析三种典型碳排放核算方法(清单分析法、投入产出分析和生态网络分析),进一步划分为流量分析模式和结构分析模式。流量分析模式主要从排放量角度对园区内部及其上下游产业链相关的碳排放活动进行核算;结构分析模式则聚焦园区相关碳排放部门和价值链的组织形式,从投入产出或者网络关联角度开展分析。研究发现清单分析法可以自下而上量化产业园区碳排放活动的流量,投入产出法则自上而下揭示碳排放单元的直接和间接流量以及平行结构,而生态网络分析则采用混合式核算模式刻画碳排放单元之间的网状关联结构。最后,本研究初步提出了产业园区碳排放核算方法的研究框架,力求提高排放因子精度,改进核算模式和建立动态核算模型,对碳排放总量和结构进行预测,从而实现产业园区的低碳发展。     

长三角城市群“空间流”网络结构特征——基于公路运输、火车客运及百度指数的综合分析

信息技术的应用与社会信息技术的传输,使大量的要素(人流、物流、信息流)在城市群空间内集聚与扩散,加密城市群空间内城市联系。在基于公路运输、普通列车、高速列车以及百度指数4个要素的综合分析基础上,对长三角城市群"空间流"网络结构特征进行探析。研究结果表明:(1)长三角城市群区域内城市联系虽具备了网络化规模,但城市间的联系不均衡,以上海、南京、杭州等城市为多中心的协调网络发展格局特征明显;(2)长三角城市群16个核心城市"空间流"特征呈现三角形网络结构,其三角形的顶角分别由上海(沪)、南京(宁)与杭州(杭)3个核心节点城市构成。在空间结构内部,形成若干次级城市网络连线;在空间分布上,北翼网络化程度较高于南翼线性联系程度,区域联系强度以"沪—宁"、"沪—杭"沿线向两侧递减;(3)上海、南京、杭州、苏州、无锡5个核心城市排名处于网络中心的前列,扬州、南通、泰州、舟山等周边城市相对靠后,这与区域经济发展过程的"吸虹效应"有关,随着区域经济一体化程度的加深,中心城市会向周边地区提供服务与经济辐射,完善整个长三角城市群网络体系。     

Metagovernance and policy forum outputs in Swiss environmental politics

Policy forums are lightly institutionalized and stable forms of governance networks that include administrative authorities, interest groups, and scientists. They are said to produce different types of outputs, from simple actor coordination to position papers and implementation documents, but their productivity has also been questioned. Metagovernance strategies can improve the capability of policy forums to produce outputs. To determine how different metagovernance strategies influence the capability of forums to produce joint position papers, 29 policy forums in the Swiss environmental sector are compared through a qualitative comparative analysis. Results indicate that metagovernance strategies such as state actors as forum members or majority decision rules need to be combined with small forum size or low actor heterogeneity. Furthermore, forum foundation by the state complicates the production of position papers.     

特朗普“去气候化”政策对全球气候治理的影响

美国特朗普政府宣布退出《巴黎协定》是当前全球气候治理中最受舆论关注的问题,对事态发展趋势的判断和事件影响的评估是最为亟需的。本文系统分析了特朗普政府上任后推行的一系列"去气候化"政策,以及其退出《巴黎协定》的主要动因和可能形式,同时量化评估了这些内政外交的"倒退"对美国实施国家自主贡献目标以及全球气候治理格局的实质影响,并据此提出了中国应对全球气候治理新形势变化的对策和建议。研究表明,特朗普政府"美国优先"的能源政策根植于复兴制造业和加大基础设施投资的经济利益动机,随着特朗普"去气候化"进程持续发酵,诸多气候政策面临存续风险,美国实施国家自主贡献将面临严峻挑战,"倒行政策"将有可能使美国温室气体排放出现反弹。如果不考虑中、高危气候政策,美国2025年温室气体排放也仅能相对2005年下降11.0%—14.9%,距离下降26%—28%的国家自主贡献目标相去甚远。同时,特朗普政府拒绝继续履行向发展中国家提供气候资金支持的义务,将有可能导致绿色气候基金拖欠资金总额上升117%,并进一步挫伤全球低碳投资的信心。没有美国的全球气候治理3.0时代将呈现出新的复杂特征,并不可避免地造成减排、资金和领导力缺口的持续扩大,也不排除后续会出现消极的跟随者,整体进程将可能进入一个低潮周期。虽然国际社会对中国引领全球气候治理充满期待,但中国仍应审慎对待,长远谋划应对气候变化的内政外交战略,而不应将"气候举旗"看作是一蹴而就的短期策略,对各种要求中国发挥"领导作用"的说法保持清醒头脑。在今后气候谈判中,美国仍有较大可能会二次"要价",中国作为排放大国的压力依然不容小觑,中美气候关系需要再定位。     

基于创新合作联系的城市网络格局分析——以长江经济带为例

现有城市地理研究主要基于重力模型、客货流网络和连锁模型等方法刻画城市网络。这些方法或是仅仅基于假设而可能与事实不符,或是数据难以获取,或是过于强调城市间的等级关系。通过引入合作专利数据,探索更加真实、平等的城市网络衡量方法。基于对长江经济带城市间创新联系的实证分析,发现目前城市间的创新联系以公司间(尤其是总部-分支机构间)合作为主;城市间创新联系存在非对称性和空间差异;实际创新联系与重力模型估算的创新联系存在正相关关系,但是相关系数不高;城市间创新联系的规模-位序符合Zipf定律,且存在两个无标度区;城市间创新联系受空间距离、行政级别、产业结构相似程度等影响,反映了距离衰减定律、行政区经济和产业链分工等规律对城市创新联系的解释力。     

开放经济、环保财政支出与污染治理——来自中国省级与行业面板数据的经验证据

首先按照各省环保财政支出占GDP比重与按主成分分析法计算的地方环境污染物排放综合指数的排名情况把中国30个省份分成两个区域,区域1环保财政支出污染治理效应较强,区域2环保财政支出污染治理效应较弱。区域1包括北京、海南等14个省市,区域2包括天津、上海等16个省市。其次基于2007—2014年中国省级和行业面板数据,分析开放经济、环保财政支出对污染治理的影响。最后借鉴门限回归模型检验开放经济是否存在环保财政支出与污染治理的门槛效应。结果显示:(1)环境污染物排放存在区域差异和行业差异,区域1呈现出开放程度和污染物排放双低的特征,而区域2则表现为双高特征。制造业、电力、煤气及水的生产和供应业污染物排放较高,采掘业污染物排放年均增长速度最快。(2)样本期内省级和行业面板数据均表明开放经济与环境污染物排放显著负相关,对外开放不是助推环境污染的原因。(3)中国环保财政支出与环境污染物排放显著负相关,环保财政支出具有显著的污染治理效应。(4)开放经济对环保财政支出的污染治理效应具有门槛效应,当进口和出口贸易总额高于门槛值-1.221、-1.016时环保财政支出的污染治理效应很难发挥。(5)以进、出口贸易总额为门槛变量时,有107个观测值低于门槛值,占总观测值的44.58%,其中有59个位于区域1,占55.14%。鉴于此应继续加大环境保护财政支出,进一步提升环保财政专项支出在GDP中所占比重,保持适度的对外开放,优化能源消费结构和实现产业结构升级,全面改善环境质量,提升开放经济下环保财政支出的污染治理效应。